Carrefour SA Recorded A 7.1% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Investors in Carrefour SA (EPA:CA) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.1% to close at €18.27 following the release of its half-year results. Revenues came in 7.1% below expectations, at €40b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of €1.80 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Carrefour

Following last week's earnings report, Carrefour's 14 analysts are forecasting 2023 revenues to be €86.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 21% to €1.38 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €86.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.52 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €20.31, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Carrefour analyst has a price target of €23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €17.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Carrefour's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 1.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Carrefour is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Carrefour. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Carrefour analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Carrefour you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.