Carrefour (ENXTPA:CA): Exploring Valuation as Shares Recover from Early-Year Lows

Carrefour (ENXTPA:CA) shares have edged slightly higher over the past week, adding some curiosity for investors watching its performance. The stock’s mild move, while not headline-grabbing, could signal shifting sentiment among those tracking major European retailers.

See our latest analysis for Carrefour.

Carrefour’s recent 1-month share price return of 10% stands out after a sluggish start to the year. Momentum has picked up with the stock clawing back earlier losses. That said, the 1-year total shareholder return remains modest at -4%, reflecting both market uncertainty and evolving investor sentiment around traditional retailers like Carrefour.

If you’re watching how large retailers are regaining their footing, it could be the perfect moment to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But is Carrefour’s current price leaving value on the table for investors, or is the stock already reflecting every bit of future growth potential? If the latter is true, any upside may be limited from this point.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.5% Undervalued

The market is pricing Carrefour at €13.36 per share, trailing behind the narrative’s fair value estimate of €13.98 and suggesting room for optimism. This gap creates a story centered on the success of key strategic changes that could shift the balance in shareholders’ favor.

Carrefour's digital transformation and focus on e-commerce, with an 18% growth to €6 billion in GMV, coupled with private label expansion, could drive higher margins due to the typically better profitability of online channels and private label products.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why this valuation expects Carrefour to shake up its earnings profile? The secret isn’t just more stores or more shoppers. There’s a quantitative foundation behind the narrative packed with assumptions about future profit margins, digital sales, and how quickly a traditional retailer can pivot.

Result: Fair Value of €13.98 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, declining consumption in the French market and ongoing currency volatility in Brazil and Argentina could quickly undermine this bullish scenario.

Find out about the key risks to this Carrefour narrative.

Build Your Own Carrefour Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to dig a little deeper, you can build your own Carrefour story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carrefour research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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