Stock Analysis

LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne (EPA:MC) jumps 16% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

ENXTPA:MC
Source: Shutterstock

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne (EPA:MC) shareholders have enjoyed a 95% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 37% (not including dividends).

The past week has proven to be lucrative for LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne managed to grow its earnings per share at 16% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 14% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ENXTPA:MC Earnings Per Share Growth October 1st 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne's TSR for the last 5 years was 109%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne shareholders are down 2.0% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 8.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 16%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on French exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.