Earnings Miss: SPIE SA Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for SPIE SA (EPA:SPIE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 7.3% to €33.04. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €8.8b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit €1.44 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for SPIE

Following the latest results, SPIE's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €9.70b in 2024. This would be a notable 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €9.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.89 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

Additionally, the consensus price target for SPIE rose 7.4% to €34.56, showing a clear increase in optimism from the the analysts involved. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SPIE at €40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €28.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting SPIE's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that SPIE is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

At least one of SPIE's seven analysts has provided estimates out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for SPIE that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.