Is Vinci’s Share Price Still Attractive After 18% Year-to-Date Surge in 2025?

Thinking about Vinci stock? If you have been watching the ticker, you have probably noticed that Vinci has quietly climbed by 1.0% in the last week, 3.2% in the last month, and an impressive 18.3% year to date. Zoom out even further, and the momentum is hard to ignore. The stock has delivered 63.8% over the last three years and 86.7% over five years. For a large infrastructure player, that is no small feat.

Some of this steady upward trend reflects a growing confidence in the construction and concessions sectors across Europe, as investors recalibrate around themes like infrastructure stimulus and long-term transport demand. Vinci’s recent moves seem less about short-term speculation, and more a recognition that risk perceptions in the industry could be shifting favorably. That naturally raises a major question for potential investors: at today’s close of 117.95, is Vinci already fully valued, or is the market still underestimating its edge?

To tackle that, let’s take a closer look at valuation. Vinci clocks a score of 3 out of 6 on our valuation check, suggesting the stock is undervalued on half the metrics we examine. We will dig into how that score is calculated, compare it with other approaches, and, ultimately, explore if there is an even better way to judge Vinci’s real value.

Why Vinci is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Vinci Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its expected future free cash flows, then discounting those sums back to today’s monetary value. This approach aims to answer whether Vinci’s current trading price matches what its projected cash flows are truly worth at present.

For Vinci, the latest reported Free Cash Flow stands at approximately €7.17 billion. Analysts provide direct forecasts for the next several years, after which projections are extended based on recent performance and expectations. Looking ahead, Vinci’s forecasted Free Cash Flow for the year 2029 is around €5.01 billion. Further projections suggest some stability in these cash flows beyond the analyst horizon, which is a typical step in DCF modeling.

Applying the DCF model, Vinci’s estimated fair value is €111.02 per share. Compared to its current price of €117.95, this implies the stock is trading approximately 6.2% above its calculated fair value. In other words, Vinci appears slightly overvalued on this basis, but the margin is not significant.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Vinci.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Vinci's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Vinci Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a trusted metric for valuing profitable companies like Vinci, as it directly links the market price to what the company actually earns. For investors, the PE ratio acts as a shorthand for answering whether the market’s expectations for earnings growth and risk are reasonable compared to the price being paid.

On this front, Vinci’s current PE ratio stands at 13.4x. To put this in perspective, this is well below the Construction industry average of 16.0x and even further below its peer group average of 24.1x. A lower PE could mean the market is more cautious on Vinci’s growth prospects, profitability, or risk compared to peers, or it could be an opportunity if these concerns are overstated.

Rather than relying solely on industry or peer comparisons, Simply Wall St applies its proprietary "Fair Ratio." In Vinci’s case, this is 23.7x. This benchmark is more comprehensive, factoring in Vinci’s earnings growth, risk profile, profit margins, market cap, and its standing within the industry. As a result, the Fair Ratio provides a more balanced view than comparisons that ignore key fundamentals or risk levels.

Comparing Vinci’s actual PE of 13.4x to its Fair Ratio of 23.7x suggests the stock is attractively valued at current levels. The gap indicates Vinci is decidedly cheaper than what a fair assessment of its fundamentals might justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Vinci Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your unique perspective or “story” about Vinci, including the business drivers, risks, and outcomes you believe matter most, all linked directly to your own forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins. Instead of relying solely on broad valuation models, Narratives allow you to combine your view of the company’s future with actual financial numbers, automatically calculating a fair value based on your scenario.

Narratives are available to all investors on Simply Wall St’s Community page, making sophisticated valuation accessible and easy to update. Each Narrative connects Vinci’s real-world story to specific numbers, instantly showing whether the current share price undervalues or overhypes the stock and updating as new announcements or earnings reports come out. For example, some Vinci Narratives expect a fair value of €152.0 per share based on strong infrastructure growth and margin improvement, while others see a much lower value of €110.0 if risks around regulation and the French property market play out. By comparing these Narratives, you can make smarter, more confident buy and sell decisions tailored to your outlook.

Do you think there's more to the story for Vinci? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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