Dassault Aviation (ENXTPA:AM): Exploring Valuation After a Year of Steady Growth and Recent Rebound

Something has clearly caught the attention of investors in Dassault Aviation société anonyme (ENXTPA:AM), and you might be weighing your options. While there is no single headline-grabbing event behind the latest move, even small shifts can prompt fresh questions about where the stock is heading. Sometimes, it is the quieter periods that invite careful thought about value, especially for a company with a long track record.

Over the past year, the stock has delivered a solid 46% total return. Recent momentum is mixed, with the share price up nearly 1% over the past month, reversing a dip from the previous quarter. That rebound stands out after a slightly rough patch in the past 3 months, and the company’s multi-year track record remains impressive. Taken together, the picture is one of steady long-term growth with a few ups and downs along the way.

After a year of strong gains and a bounce this month, is Dassault Aviation société anonyme undervalued and due for further upside, or is the current price already reflecting all the good news?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.8% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative suggests that Dassault Aviation société anonyme is trading well below its estimated fair value, implying significant upside if expectations are met.

The robust international demand for the Rafale, highlighted by major new contracts with India (including the first Rafale Marine export order) and the UAE, ongoing negotiations for additional aircraft with Indonesia, and active Make in India transfer initiatives, provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility and demonstrates Dassault's ability to capitalize on the trend toward higher global defense spending, particularly among NATO and partner nations. This growing backlog should drive forward revenue growth and enhance long-term earnings stability.

Curious what’s fueling this bullish target? The narrative is anchored in a bold forecast of future growth and expanding profit margins, which hints at strong analyst conviction behind their fair value. Wondering which headline numbers make this possible, and why some see Dassault trading at a major discount? The answers are tucked inside the narrative’s full analysis.

Result: Fair Value of €325.79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain disruptions or significant U.S. tariffs could undermine Dassault's growth outlook and limit the potential upside investors currently anticipate.

Find out about the key risks to this Dassault Aviation société anonyme narrative.

Another View: What Does the DCF Model Say?

Looking at our DCF model adds a different perspective. This method suggests the market may be overlooking Dassault Aviation société anonyme’s longer-term cash flow potential, which could indicate a case for undervaluation. However, is it possible that market sentiment is missing something important?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Dassault Aviation société anonyme for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Dassault Aviation société anonyme Narrative

If you would rather reach your own conclusion or dig beneath the surface yourself, the full dataset is at your fingertips. You can have your own narrative ready in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Dassault Aviation société anonyme research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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