Earnings Update: Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

As you might know, Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.2% short of analyst estimates at €818m, and statutory earnings of €0.28 per share missed forecasts by 2.3%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Finnair Oyj are now predicting revenues of €3.14b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 4.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 24% to €0.41. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.39 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Finnair Oyj's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €2.90, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Finnair Oyj analyst has a price target of €3.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Finnair Oyj is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Finnair Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Finnair Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Finnair Oyj following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €2.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Finnair Oyj analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Finnair Oyj has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.