Results: F-Secure Oyj Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a good week for F-Secure Oyj (HEL:FSECURE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 7.6% to €1.76. Revenues were €36m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of €0.04 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from F-Secure Oyj's four analysts is for revenues of €150.2m in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 15% to €0.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €151.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.15 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for F-Secure Oyj

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €1.90, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values F-Secure Oyj at €2.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €1.60. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that F-Secure Oyj is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that F-Secure Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 1.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, F-Secure Oyj is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that F-Secure Oyj's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for F-Secure Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with F-Secure Oyj .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.