Earnings Miss: F-Secure Oyj Missed EPS By 5.7% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that F-Secure Oyj (HEL:FSECURE) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to €1.77 in the past week. Revenues of €146m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.12, missing estimates by 5.7%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on F-Secure Oyj after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for F-Secure Oyj

After the latest results, the four analysts covering F-Secure Oyj are now predicting revenues of €153.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 20% to €0.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €152.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.15 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €2.43, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values F-Secure Oyj at €2.80 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.20. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that F-Secure Oyj is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that F-Secure Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than F-Secure Oyj.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for F-Secure Oyj. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple F-Secure Oyj analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for F-Secure Oyj you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.