Tokmanni Group Oyj Just Missed EPS By 5.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Tokmanni Group Oyj (HEL:TOKMAN) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.8% to €14.60 in the past week. Revenues of €1.4b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.92, missing estimates by 5.6%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Tokmanni Group Oyj

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Tokmanni Group Oyj are now predicting revenues of €1.70b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to €1.08. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.23 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €17.13, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tokmanni Group Oyj at €20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €15.50. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tokmanni Group Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tokmanni Group Oyj is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tokmanni Group Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Tokmanni Group Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tokmanni Group Oyj you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.