Kojamo Oyj Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Kojamo Oyj (HEL:KOJAMO) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to €9.05 in the past week. Revenues came in at €112m, in line with estimates, while Kojamo Oyj reported a statutory loss of €0.34 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Kojamo Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, Kojamo Oyj's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €454.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Kojamo Oyj forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.13 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €454.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.64 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €10.16, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kojamo Oyj at €11.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €9.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kojamo Oyj's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Kojamo Oyj.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kojamo Oyj. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Kojamo Oyj's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Kojamo Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Kojamo Oyj is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.