Does Alma Media Offer Value After Strong Year and Digital Advertising Growth in 2025?

Trying to figure out what to do with Alma Media Oyj stock right now? You are not alone. With its shares closing at 14.65, a lot of investors are weighing up what comes next. Over the past year, Alma Media Oyj’s stock price has soared 38.2%, including a robust 30.2% climb year-to-date. Zoom out a bit further, and the growth story looks even stronger. The stock is up 87.2% in three years and an impressive 132.7% over five years. Even just in the last month, the stock gained nearly 10% as investors appeared to react to shifts in the digital media landscape, which have generally been favorable for companies like this one.

So, is that run justified, or are we venturing into overheated territory? That is exactly where a valuation check can help. Right now, Alma Media Oyj has a value score of 3 out of 6, meaning it is undervalued according to half of the typical measures analysts look for. But what are these methods, and do they tell the whole story? Let us dive into some common ways professional analysts evaluate a stock’s worth. Stick around, there might just be a smarter perspective on valuation coming up at the end.

Why Alma Media Oyj is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Alma Media Oyj Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is truly worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those amounts back to today’s value. This approach helps investors judge how the current stock price compares to the company’s intrinsic value based on these projections.

For Alma Media Oyj, analysts estimate the company will generate a Free Cash Flow (FCF) of €69.38 million over the last twelve months. Looking forward, projections suggest gradual growth, with forecasted FCF reaching around €75.1 million by 2029. Because only the next five years include direct analyst estimates, longer-term cash flows are extrapolated using trend assumptions. All projections are reported in euros, the company’s reporting currency.

Based on this analysis, the DCF model calculates an estimated fair value of €20.46 per share, which is significantly above the latest closing price of €14.65. The implied discount is roughly 28.4%, indicating that Alma Media Oyj may be trading well below its reasonable value based on cash flow fundamentals.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Alma Media Oyj.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Alma Media Oyj is undervalued by 28.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Alma Media Oyj Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular way to value profitable companies like Alma Media Oyj, because it directly relates the market price of a stock to its earnings. For businesses with consistent profits, the PE ratio provides a quick snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for each euro of earnings. Higher ratios generally reflect higher growth expectations or lower risk. Lower ratios can indicate the market sees less future growth or higher risks in the business.

Currently, Alma Media Oyj trades at a PE ratio of 22.6x. This puts it slightly above the industry average PE of 17.0x and nearly in line with the peer group’s average of 22.3x. At first glance, this suggests the stock might look a bit expensive next to the broader industry but much more typical compared to immediate competitors in the media space.

However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio goes a step further than these conventional comparisons. The Fair Ratio for Alma Media Oyj is 25.1x, taking into account not just the company’s industry but also its earnings growth prospects, profit margins, market capitalization, and risk profile. This holistic metric makes it a more tailored benchmark for valuation and highlights nuances that a simple industry or peer comparison might miss.

Comparing Alma Media Oyj’s current PE ratio of 22.6x to its Fair Ratio of 25.1x, the stock appears to be trading at a slight discount to what would be expected for its profile. This points to a valuation that leans toward being attractive for long-term investors.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Alma Media Oyj Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your story and perspective about a company; it is how you connect the dots between what you believe about Alma Media Oyj’s future prospects, what you expect in terms of earnings, margins or revenue growth, and how all of that translates into a fair value estimate for the stock.

Narratives allow you to back up your investment thesis with real numbers, linking your outlook for the business to a concrete financial forecast, and then to a clear “fair value” that you can compare directly to today’s market price. They are an easy and accessible tool found on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors to give context to their buy, hold, or sell decision, and they dynamically update whenever key news or earnings reports land.

With Narratives, you can see exactly how your expectations differ from others, and make decisions based on current fair value versus the price. For example, some investors believe Alma Media Oyj’s digital transformation will drive explosive growth and see its fair value well above €20, while others forecast a more modest future with a fair value near €14.57, close to the consensus target.

Do you think there's more to the story for Alma Media Oyj? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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