Harvia Oyj Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Harvia Oyj (HEL:HARVIA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to €44.30 in the week after its latest annual results. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit €175m. Statutory earnings fell 7.9% short of analyst forecasts, reaching €1.29 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Harvia Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Harvia Oyj's three analysts is for revenues of €204.4m in 2025. This would reflect a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 32% to €1.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €200.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.78 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Harvia Oyj after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of €49.67, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Harvia Oyj at €52.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €46.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Harvia Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Harvia Oyj is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €49.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Harvia Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Harvia Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Harvia Oyj's balance sheet, and whether we think Harvia Oyj is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.