Has Ponsse Oyj's (HEL:PON1V) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 09, 2021
HLSE:PON1V

Ponsse Oyj's (HEL:PON1V) stock is up by a considerable 22% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Ponsse Oyj's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for Ponsse Oyj

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Ponsse Oyj is:

17% = €44m ÷ €266m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.17 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Ponsse Oyj's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE

At first glance, Ponsse Oyj seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 11%. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Ponsse Oyj's net income shrunk at a rate of 3.9% over the past five years. Therefore, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Ponsse Oyj's earnings seems to be shrinking at a similar rate as the industry which shrunk at a rate of a rate of 3.7% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
HLSE:PON1V Past Earnings Growth June 10th 2021

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Ponsse Oyj fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Ponsse Oyj Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 45% (where it is retaining 55% of its profits), Ponsse Oyj has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Ponsse Oyj has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 41%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 20%.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Ponsse Oyj certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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