Earnings Miss: Ponsse Oyj Missed EPS By 76% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Ponsse Oyj (HEL:PON1V), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €172m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 76%, coming in at just €0.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ponsse Oyj after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Ponsse Oyj's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €756.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 2.8% to €1.40 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €772.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.43 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Ponsse Oyj

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of €29.43, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Ponsse Oyj's market value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ponsse Oyj at €30.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €27.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ponsse Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ponsse Oyj.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at €29.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ponsse Oyj analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Ponsse Oyj's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.