Earnings Update: Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) Just Reported Its Interim Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Aena S.M.E., S.A. (BME:AENA) released its interim result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to €170 in the past week. Revenues of €2.7b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €5.39, missing estimates by 2.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aena S.M.E

Following the latest results, Aena S.M.E's 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €5.84b in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 2.6% to €12.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €5.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of €12.39 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €200, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aena S.M.E at €226 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €129. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aena S.M.E's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aena S.M.E's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aena S.M.E to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €200, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Aena S.M.E analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Aena S.M.E is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com