Almirall, S.A. (BME:ALM) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Almirall, S.A. (BME:ALM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to €8.52 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at €230m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Almirall

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Almirall's nine analysts is for revenues of €1.09b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Almirall is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.25 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.25 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €11.79, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Almirall at €16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €10.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Almirall's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Almirall is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Almirall. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Almirall. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Almirall analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Almirall's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.