Almirall (BME:ALM): Exploring Current Valuation After Recent 7% Share Price Climb

Almirall (BME:ALM) stock has quietly gained traction over the past month, climbing around 7%. Investors are watching closely as the pharmaceutical company’s recent performance sparks questions about its underlying momentum and potential drivers in the coming months.

See our latest analysis for Almirall.

Looking beyond this recent uptick, Almirall’s share price has delivered steady gains over the past year. Its one-year total shareholder return of 32.5% suggests momentum is building as investors respond positively to the company’s strategic progress.

If pharmaceutical innovation is on your radar, you can uncover more opportunities by browsing See the full list for free.

But with strong recent gains and a share price not far off analyst targets, the key question arises: Is Almirall still undervalued, or has the market already factored in expectations for continued growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued

With Almirall’s latest close at €11.94, the most popular narrative assigns a fair value of €13.3. This suggests further upside, although the margin is becoming slimmer as analyst and market expectations converge.

Strong and sustained expansion of the dermatology portfolio (notably Ebglyss and Ilumetri) is supported by growing prevalence of chronic skin and autoimmune diseases due to demographic shifts. Aggressive pipeline launches and label expansions are expected to drive double-digit net sales growth through 2030.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which bold pipeline bets and aggressive earnings projections are behind this ambitious target? The narrative is all about surging profit margins and blockbuster revenue leaps that rival sector giants. What moves the needle in analysts’ eyes? Click through to see what really drives this valuation and discover the quantitative levers they believe will continue Almirall’s momentum.

Result: Fair Value of €13.3 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated reliance on key dermatology drugs and rising biologic costs could quickly challenge Almirall’s margin upside if market conditions shift.

Find out about the key risks to this Almirall narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Missing Something?

While analysts point to further upside, our SWS DCF model paints a different picture. It estimates Almirall’s fair value at €24.4 per share, which is far above both the most popular narrative and today’s price. This much larger margin of safety may signal a potential opportunity. But could there be risks the market and models are both overlooking?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Almirall Narrative

If you want a fresh perspective or prefer your own research angle, you can build a custom Almirall view from scratch in just minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Almirall.

Looking for More Investment Ideas?

Expand your watchlist and stay ahead of the market curve by tapping into exciting trends and strategies other investors might miss. Take action on these fresh themes now:

• Boost your passive income potential with stocks offering attractive yields by checking out these 19 dividend stocks with yields > 3%.
• Ride the technology wave and harness the momentum by following top performers found through these 24 AI penny stocks.
• Select quality companies that are trading for less than they're truly worth with the help of these 901 undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com