Results: Acerinox, S.A. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Acerinox, S.A. (BME:ACX) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to €10.14 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of €0.11 per share on revenues of €3.1b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Acerinox are now predicting revenues of €6.03b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 94% to €0.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.82 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Acerinox

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €13.19 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Acerinox at €15.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €10.20. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Acerinox shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Acerinox's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Acerinox to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Acerinox. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Acerinox analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Acerinox (2 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.