Should You Reassess Prosegur Stock After Its Strong 65.8% Gain in 2025?

Are you deciding whether to hold onto your Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad shares, buy into recent momentum, or sit this one out? Let’s take a closer look together. The Spanish security services leader has kept things interesting on the market lately, with its stock posting a near-flat performance over the past week, down just 0.4%. Over the last month, it delivered a remarkable 9.0% jump. If we zoom out, the longer-term story is even more compelling. Prosegur is up 65.8% year-to-date, 61.7% over the last twelve months, and has achieved a substantial 96.2% gain in the past three years. Even over five years, shareholders have seen an impressive 70.4% return. This kind of consistent performance has caught the eye of many investors, especially as the broader market reacts to ongoing shifts in demand for security services and evolving risk perceptions across Europe.

What is particularly interesting for value-focused investors is that Prosegur currently scores a strong 5 out of 6 on our valuation checklist. This is a clear signal that it stands out as undervalued on nearly every key metric we track. Of course, reviewing the standard valuation approaches is only part of the story. Let’s explore just how undervalued Prosegur might be by breaking down its valuation metrics, and then touch on a smarter, more holistic method to size up its fair price at the end.

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad delivered 61.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Commercial Services industry.

Approach 1: Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach seeks to estimate a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows and then discounting them back to their present value. This method is widely used for assessing whether a stock is under, over, or fairly valued based on long-range cash flow expectations.

For Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, the most recent reported Free Cash Flow stands at €133.1 Million. Analyst forecasts suggest steady growth over the next several years, with projections indicating that Free Cash Flow could reach €214 Million by 2028. It is important to note that while analyst estimates extend out five years, further projections through 2035 are derived from extrapolation. These extended projections show continued, if moderate, growth in cash generation.

When these projections are run through the DCF model, the resulting intrinsic value is calculated at €4.28 per share. Compared to the current trading price, this suggests the stock is trading at a 33.5% discount to its estimated fair value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad is undervalued by 33.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular and effective valuation metric, especially for profitable companies like Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad. This multiple helps investors compare a stock’s price with its actual earnings, providing a clear sense of market expectations around profitability. A company with solid profits, like Prosegur, is best valued through its earnings power, making the PE ratio particularly suitable here.

"Normal" or "fair" PE ratios for a company are influenced by future growth prospects and perceived risks. Companies expected to increase profits rapidly, or those operating in stable, favorable industries, typically deserve a higher PE ratio. Conversely, companies with slower growth or higher risk levels often trade at lower PE multiples to reflect those challenges.

Prosegur is currently trading at a 14.48x PE ratio. For context, this is below both the Commercial Services industry average of 16.79x and its peer group’s average of 17.79x. While these benchmarks are useful, Simply Wall St introduces the concept of a "Fair Ratio." This proprietary metric estimates the PE multiple a company should command, factoring in its unique growth rate, earnings stability, profit margins, industry, and market capitalization. In Prosegur’s case, the Fair Ratio stands at 15.24x. This analysis goes beyond simple peer comparisons, offering a more tailored and precise view of valuation based on the company’s real-world fundamentals.

With Prosegur’s actual PE of 14.48x sitting just below the Fair Ratio of 15.24x, the stock appears slightly undervalued based on its earnings profile, but not dramatically so.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to make sense of a company's value and the real opportunities or risks behind the numbers, so let's introduce you to Narratives.

A Narrative is a simple, yet powerful tool that lets you connect a company's actual story—its growth plans, market shifts, and emerging risks—to a personal financial forecast, and then translate that into your own fair value estimate.

Narratives go beyond ratios and models. They allow you to build your own perspective about Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad by combining key assumptions about future revenue, earnings, and profit margins with a broader view on industry changes and company initiatives.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to track their ideas and see how their conviction matches up to peers. This empowers smarter investment decisions by comparing their individual Fair Value against the current share price.

Importantly, Narratives update automatically whenever fresh information such as earnings results or news arrives, keeping your investment thesis current and relevant.

For example, some investors believe Prosegur could hit a fair value of €4.0 per share if its expansion and digital transition accelerates, while others see a more cautious €2.0 if risks from emerging markets or cost pressures overwhelm the upside.

Do you think there's more to the story for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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