Gestamp Automoción (BME:GEST) earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last three years, but the stock advances 4.1% this past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 23, 2022
BME:GEST
Source: Shutterstock

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Gestamp Automoción, S.A. (BME:GEST) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 37% in three years, versus a market decline of about 2.6%. And over the last year the share price fell 28%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 25% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

While the last three years has been tough for Gestamp Automoción shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Gestamp Automoción

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Gestamp Automoción became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 4.2% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. After all, if revenue keeps shrinking, it may be difficult to find earnings growth in the future.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
BME:GEST Earnings and Revenue Growth March 23rd 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Gestamp Automoción

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Gestamp Automoción shareholders took a loss of 28%, including dividends. In contrast the market gained about 1.3%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. The three-year loss of 11% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Gestamp Automoción (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on ES exchanges.

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