Novo Nordisk (CPSE:NOVO B): Assessing Valuation After a Sharp Reset in Shareholder Returns

Novo Nordisk (CPSE:NOVO B) has been under pressure lately, with shares sliding over the past year despite steady revenue and earnings growth. This raises an obvious question: are investors overreacting or finally repricing expectations?

See our latest analysis for Novo Nordisk.

Despite the solid fundamentals story, the 1 year to date share price return of negative 51.93 percent and 1 year total shareholder return of negative 59.63 percent show that sentiment has sharply reset, with longer term gains now looking more like distant memories than current momentum.

If Novo Nordisk’s pullback has you rethinking healthcare exposure, it could be a good moment to explore other healthcare stocks that might offer a more attractive balance of growth and risk.

With earnings still growing and the share price now heavily discounted versus analyst targets, investors face a pivotal question: is Novo Nordisk quietly slipping into undervalued territory, or is the market already pricing in all the future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.3% Undervalued

With Novo Nordisk last closing at DKK 307.05 against a narrative fair value of about DKK 400.24, the current market discount looks substantial in light of the company’s long term growth runway and profitability profile.

Despite current headwinds, penetration of GLP 1 therapies in both diabetes (only 7% of prescriptions) and obesity (less than 1% of those affected globally treated with branded medications) remains extremely low, suggesting a vast untapped patient pool that could drive significant long term revenue growth as access and adoption increase. • Accelerating product launches and label expansions for drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic, combined with rollout in new international markets (Wegovy now in 35 countries), positions Novo Nordisk to capture expanding global demand tied to the rise in metabolic diseases and aging populations, underpinning future topline growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how moderate revenue growth, firm margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine into that valuation gap? The full narrative spells out the precise growth runway, profit assumptions, and rerating needed to close the distance between today’s price and that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $400.24 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside case hinges on volume growth and pricing holding up. Patent expiries and intensifying GLP 1 competition are capable of quickly eroding margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Novo Nordisk narrative.

Build Your Own Novo Nordisk Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a customized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Novo Nordisk research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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