Genmab A/S Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Genmab A/S (CPH:GMAB) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to kr.1,319 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr.4.7b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 26%, coming in at kr.20.18 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Genmab's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr.24.3b in 2025. This would be a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 20% to kr.101 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr.24.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.104 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Genmab

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr.2,008, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Genmab analyst has a price target of kr.2,750 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr.1,000. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Genmab'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So although Genmab is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Genmab. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Genmab analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.