What Is Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft's (ETR:HLAG) Share Price Doing?

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the XTRA over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Hapag-Lloyd’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

Is Hapag-Lloyd Still Cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 5.90% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Hapag-Lloyd today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is €206.43, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Hapag-Lloyd’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Hapag-Lloyd generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Hapag-Lloyd, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, HLAG appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on HLAG for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on HLAG should the price fluctuate below its true value.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Hapag-Lloyd (including 1 which can't be ignored).

If you are no longer interested in Hapag-Lloyd, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.