secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft Recorded A 6.4% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:YSN) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to €109 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €144m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €4.51 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for secunet Security Networks

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from secunet Security Networks' four analysts is for revenues of €398.6m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to €4.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €401.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.57 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 5.4% to €193, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values secunet Security Networks at €267 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €98.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that secunet Security Networks' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than secunet Security Networks.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for secunet Security Networks. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of secunet Security Networks' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for secunet Security Networks going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the secunet Security Networks Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.