Is Software (ETR:SOW) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Software Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:SOW) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Software

How Much Debt Does Software Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Software had €632.5m of debt, up from €309.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have €414.4m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €218.1m.

How Strong Is Software's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Software had liabilities of €497.4m due within a year, and liabilities of €637.3m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €414.4m as well as receivables valued at €261.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €458.6m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Software has a market capitalization of €1.87b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Software's net debt is only 1.5 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 35.8 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. But the bad news is that Software has seen its EBIT plunge 20% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Software's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Software produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

On our analysis Software's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. To be specific, it seems about as good at (not) growing its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Software's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Software you should know about.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.