PVA TePla AG Just Missed EPS By 33%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

PVA TePla AG (ETR:TPE) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €61m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 33%, coming in at just €0.13 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, PVA TePla's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €260.3m in 2025. This would be an okay 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 21% to €0.81 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €262.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.83 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for PVA TePla

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 5.8% to €23.01, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on PVA TePla, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €29.00 and the most bearish at €15.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PVA TePla's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PVA TePla is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PVA TePla. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for PVA TePla going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether PVA TePla is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.