Is Ceconomy (ETR:CEC) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Ceconomy AG (ETR:CEC) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Ceconomy

What Is Ceconomy's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Ceconomy had €2.62b of debt in June 2023, down from €2.92b, one year before. On the flip side, it has €654.0m in cash leading to net debt of about €1.97b.

A Look At Ceconomy's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ceconomy had liabilities of €6.26b due within a year, and liabilities of €2.49b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had €654.0m in cash and €1.63b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €6.46b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the €995.7m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Ceconomy would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Ceconomy shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (8.7), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.90 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Ceconomy saw its EBIT tank 58% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ceconomy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Ceconomy actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

To be frank both Ceconomy's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. It looks to us like Ceconomy carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Ceconomy (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.