Bike24 Holding AG (ETR:BIKE) Analysts Just Slashed This Year's Estimates

The analysts covering Bike24 Holding AG (ETR:BIKE) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering Bike24 Holding is for revenues of €243m in 2023, implying a perceptible 4.8% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to €0.39 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €276m and losses of €0.34 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for Bike24 Holding

The consensus price target fell 12% to €3.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bike24 Holding analyst has a price target of €4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €3.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests the analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bike24 Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.3% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.3% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bike24 Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Bike24 Holding. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Bike24 Holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Bike24 Holding.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bike24 Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.