Alexander & Baldwin Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ABU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ABU (€18.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€22.31)

Is ABU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ABU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ABU (€18.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€22.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ABU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ABU?

Key metric: As ABU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ABU. This is calculated by dividing ABU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ABU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	24x
Earnings	US$59.74m
Market Cap	US$1.43b

ABU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	8.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.6x
PEG Ratio	-2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ABU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ABU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	32.1x
HABA Hamborner REIT	64.2x	10.8%	€525.5m
3295 Hulic Reit	18.4x	-2.3%	JP¥191.7b
UKCM UK Commercial Property REIT	29.9x	n/a	UK£947.3m
3279 Activia Properties	16x	n/a	JP¥261.0b
ABU Alexander & Baldwin	24x	-11.3%	€1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ABU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the peer average (32.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ABU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ABU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the European REITs industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ABU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ABU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	24x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ABU's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ABU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€18.50	€20.67 +11.7%	9.6%	€23.22	€17.93	n/a	4
Nov ’25	€16.90	€20.29 +20.0%	9.6%	€22.79	€17.60	n/a	4
Oct ’25	€17.00	€18.79 +10.5%	5.8%	€19.69	€17.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	€17.50	€18.76 +7.2%	6.0%	€19.77	€17.08	n/a	4
Aug ’25	€18.00	€18.75 +4.1%	6.1%	€20.28	€17.52	n/a	3
Jul ’25	€15.50	€17.80 +14.9%	8.8%	€19.34	€15.65	n/a	3
Jun ’25	€15.50	€17.80 +14.9%	8.8%	€19.34	€15.65	n/a	3
May ’25	€15.20	€17.76 +16.8%	8.8%	€19.29	€15.61	n/a	3
Apr ’25	€15.10	€17.76 +17.6%	8.8%	€19.29	€15.61	n/a	3
Mar ’25	€14.80	€18.48 +24.9%	4.1%	€19.41	€17.56	n/a	3
Feb ’25	€15.90	€18.18 +14.3%	4.1%	€19.09	€17.27	n/a	3
Jan ’25	€17.10	€18.18 +6.3%	4.1%	€19.09	€17.27	n/a	3
Jan ’24	€17.30	€21.64 +25.1%	13.0%	€24.46	€18.81	€17.10	2
Dec ’23	€18.70	€21.89 +17.1%	11.0%	€25.11	€19.32	€15.20	3
Nov ’23	€19.50	€23.28 +19.4%	11.0%	€26.71	€20.54	€14.90	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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