Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Franconofurt AG (HMSE:FFM1) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Franconofurt
What Is Franconofurt's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2022 Franconofurt had debt of €74.3m, up from €55.3m in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Healthy Is Franconofurt's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Franconofurt had liabilities of €4.71m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €73.3m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €637.5k as well as receivables valued at €974.0k due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €76.4m.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €49.5m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Franconofurt would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Strangely Franconofurt has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.7, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 11.0. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Shareholders should be aware that Franconofurt's EBIT was down 35% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Franconofurt's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Franconofurt actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
On the face of it, Franconofurt's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Franconofurt has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Franconofurt you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About HMSE:FFM1
Medium-low with imperfect balance sheet.