Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 14
Now 31% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 36% to €1.08. The fair value is estimated to be €1.56, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 14% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 40% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 73% in the next year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 25
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 65% to €1.22. The fair value is estimated to be €1.53, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 14% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 40% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 73% in the next year. New Risk • Jun 18
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.4x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (17% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 64% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€11.5m market cap, or US$13.2m). Reported Earnings • Jun 17
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €67.3m (up 12% from FY 2023). Net loss: €28.1m (loss widened 157% from FY 2023). New Risk • May 16
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 54% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (17% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 54% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2024 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (€10.8m market cap, or US$12.0m). New Risk • Apr 29
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €8.68m (US$9.88m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (16% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$10m (€8.68m market cap, or US$9.88m). Minor Risk Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2024 fiscal period end). New Risk • Apr 19
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2024. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2024 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (€9.63m market cap, or US$11.0m). New Risk • Apr 04
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of German stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€10.2m market cap, or US$11.2m). New Risk • Feb 26
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 88% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (88% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.8% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€18.9m market cap, or US$19.8m). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 153% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €54.9m to €52.9m. Losses expected to increase from €1.68 per share to €4.25. Real Estate industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 57% next year. Consensus price target down from €6.30 to €1.10. Share price fell 12% to €1.81 over the past week. New Risk • Oct 14
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 79% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (17% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (79% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€17.3m market cap, or US$18.9m). Reported Earnings • Oct 04
First half 2024 earnings released: €2.77 loss per share (vs €0.71 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: €2.77 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.71 loss in 1H 2023). Revenue: €20.8m (down 38% from 1H 2023). Net loss: €19.9m (loss widened 487% from 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 52 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 19
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €75.6m to €54.9m. Forecast losses increased from -€0.501 to -€1.68 per share. Real Estate industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target down from €10.05 to €6.40. Share price was steady at €5.20 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 18
Price target decreased by 41% to €6.40 Down from €10.80, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 21% above last closing price of €5.30. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.68 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.21 last year. New Risk • Jun 14
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.8x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (49% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€38.2m market cap, or US$40.8m). Announcement • May 31
Noratis AG, Annual General Meeting, Jul 09, 2024 Noratis AG, Annual General Meeting, Jul 09, 2024, at 10:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Reported Earnings • May 29
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €60.8m (down 29% from FY 2022). Net loss: €10.9m (down 233% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 17% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Germany. New Risk • Apr 16
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.7x net interest cover). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (49% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€36.7m market cap, or US$39.0m). New Risk • Feb 12
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 49% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.7x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (49% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€46.4m market cap, or US$50.1m). New Risk • Nov 17
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of German stocks, typically moving 6.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.7x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€29.4m market cap, or US$32.0m). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 12
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 33%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €51.7m to €53.0m. Forecast EPS reduced from -€1.05 to -€1.40 per share. Real Estate industry in Germany expected to see average net income decline 7.4% next year. Consensus price target down from €14.50 to €11.80. Share price fell 14% to €6.00 over the past week. Announcement • Jul 22
Noratis AG Announces Board Changes Noratis AG at the Annual General Meeting all items on the agenda were approved by a large majority. Among other things, Hans-Jörg Bergler was elected to the Supervisory Board. He replaces Dr. Florian Stetter. New Risk • Jul 09
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.7x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.7x net interest cover). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€44.3m market cap, or US$48.6m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to €10.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Real Estate industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 40% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €8.61 per share. Announcement • Nov 30
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 46 apartment buildings in Bückeburg, Lower Saxony. Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 46 apartment buildings in Bückeburg, Lower Saxony on November 29, 2022. This purchase sees Noratis’ portfolio expand to 69,900 square meters across 1,055 units in Lower Saxony.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of 46 apartment buildings in Bückeburg, Lower Saxony on November 29, 2022. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €24.65 Down from €27.60, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 109% above last closing price of €11.80. Stock is down 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.32 for next year compared to €1.97 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 02
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0 (vs €1.52 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0. Revenue: €68.4m (up 14% from 1H 2021). Net income: €7.93m (up 8.7% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 12% (in line with 1H 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Germany. Announcement • Sep 01
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 76 units in Kamp-Lintfort. Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 76 units in Kamp-Lintfort on August 30, 2022.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of 76 units in Kamp-Lintfort on August 30, 2022. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 30
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to €15.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 18% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €8.93 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 17
Upcoming dividend of €0.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 June 2022. Payment date: 28 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (4.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.6%). Price Target Changed • Jun 08
Price target decreased to €27.60 Down from €30.43, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of €19.50. Stock is down 5.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.13 for next year compared to €1.97 last year. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €74.0m (up 158% from FY 2020). Net income: €9.47m (up 240% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 9.7% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.4%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 14% compared to a 42% decline forecast for the industry in Germany. Reported Earnings • Oct 04
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €1.52 (vs €0.49 in 1H 2020) The company reported a solid first half result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €59.8m (up 326% from 1H 2020). Net income: €7.30m (up 306% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 12% (in line with 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jun 23
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired real estate portfolio in Bremen. Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired real estate portfolio in Bremen on June 22, 2021.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of real estate portfolio in Bremen on June 22, 2021. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 12
Upcoming dividend of €0.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 June 2021. Payment date: 21 June 2021. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.9%). Announcement • Jun 03
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired residential portfolio of 82 residential units in Celle. Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired residential portfolio of 82 residential units in Celle on June 2, 2021. Jones Lang LaSalle SE acted as the broker for the seller in the transaction.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of residential portfolio of 82 residential units in Celle on June 2, 2021. Announcement • May 27
d.i.i. Deutsche Invest Immobilien GmbH acquired real estate portfolio of 185 units in Neu-Isenburg , Rhine-Main Region from Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA). d.i.i. Deutsche Invest Immobilien GmbH acquired real estate portfolio of 185 units in Neu-Isenburg , Rhine-Main Region from Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) on May 26, 2021.
d.i.i. Deutsche Invest Immobilien GmbH completed the acquisition of real estate portfolio of 185 units in Neu-Isenburg , Rhine-Main Region from Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) on May 26, 2021. Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €29.5m (down 61% from FY 2019). Net income: €2.78m (down 68% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 11% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 12
New 90-day high: €20.20 The company is up 12% from its price of €18.05 on 13 November 2020. The German market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €12.27 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 21
New 90-day high: €18.85 The company is up 12% from its price of €16.80 on 23 October 2020. The German market is also up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €11.53 per share. Announcement • Jan 13
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 242 units in Munster from Catella European Residential managed by Catella Real Estate AG Kapitalanlagegesellschaft Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired 242 units in Munster from Catella European Residential managed by Catella Real Estate AG Kapitalanlagegesellschaft on January 12, 2021. E&V Commercial Münster acted as an intermediary at the transaction. REIUS Rechtsanwälte Partnerschaft mdB acted as legal advisor for Catella.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of 242 units in Munster from Catella European Residential managed by Catella Real Estate AG Kapitalanlagegesellschaft on January 12, 2021. Announcement • Dec 19
Noratis AG Announces Management Changes The Supervisory Board of Noratis AG has reorganised the chairmanship of the Supervisory Board with effect from 1 January 2021 against the backdrop of the stake acquired by the Merz Group and with a view to the further growth course of the company. The former member of the Supervisory Board Dr. Henning Schröer was elected as the new chairman of the Supervisory Board. Dr. Schröer is the Head of the Family Office and Managing Director of the real estate companies of the Merz Family, which is the largest shareholder of Noratis AG with around 49%. The taking over of the chairmanship of the Supervisory Board underlines the strong and long-term commitment of the Merz Family. The former chairman of the Supervisory Board, Dr. Florian Stetter, will act as deputy chairman of the Supervisory Board. The other members of the Supervisory Board are Michael Nick, Hendrik von Paepcke and Christof Scholl. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: €18.75 The company is up 4.0% from its price of €18.10 on 18 September 2020. The German market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €10.53 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 14
New 90-day low: €17.30 The company is down 13% from its price of €20.00 on 16 July 2020. The German market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.15 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 29
New 90-day low: €17.50 The company is down 17% from its price of €21.00 on 30 June 2020. The German market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.26 per share. Announcement • Sep 17
Noratis AG has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of €16.911268 million. Noratis AG has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of €16.911268 million.
Security Name: Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 963,605
Price\Range: €17.55
Transaction Features: Rights Offering Announcement • Aug 28
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired portfolio of residential properties in Germany. Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) acquired portfolio of residential properties in Germany in first half of 2020.
Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) completed the acquisition of portfolio of residential properties in Germany in first half of 2020. Announcement • Aug 21
Merz Real Estate GmbH & Co. KG completed the acquisition of 29.4% in Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) from Igor Christian Bugarski and others. Merz Real Estate GmbH & Co. KG agreed to acquire 29.4% in Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) from Igor Christian Bugarski and others on March 20, 2020. Merz will be acquiring 1.057 million shares at a price of €21 per share. Post completion, Merz would hold 29.4 % stake in Noratis. Igor Christian would still remain a shareholder in Noratis holding 8% stake. Merz Real Estate has undertaken today vis-à-vis Noratis AG to invest up to €50 million in Noratis AG within the framework of an investor and fixed subscription agreement by the end of fiscal 2024 through capital measures. The execution of the transaction with Merz Real Estate is subject to the reservation of clearance by the Bundeskartellamt (Federal Cartel Office). Holger Alfes, Thorsten Reinhard, and Fabian Badtke of Noerr acted as legal advisor for Noratis AG in the transaction.
Merz Real Estate GmbH & Co. KG completed the acquisition of 29.4% in Noratis AG (XTRA:NUVA) from Igor Christian Bugarski and others in March 2020.