Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.

DB:OS1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €28.2b

Otsuka Holdings Valuation

Is OS1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OS1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OS1 (€52.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€78.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OS1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OS1?

Key metric: As OS1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OS1. This is calculated by dividing OS1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OS1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.4x
EarningsJP¥151.58b
Market CapJP¥4.61t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OS1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OS1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average63.3x
MRK Merck KGaA
22.2x11.1%€59.9b
DMP Dermapharm Holding
22.5x17.0%€2.0b
PSG PharmaSGP Holding
15.3x13.6%€287.8m
SRT3 Sartorius
193.1x35.2%€13.5b
OS1 Otsuka Holdings
30.4x12.0%€4.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OS1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the peer average (63.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OS1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OS1 30.4xIndustry Avg. 19.5xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OS1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (19.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OS1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OS1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.4x
Fair PE Ratio20.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OS1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OS1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€52.50
€57.53
+9.6%
16.9%€67.70€38.24n/a11
Dec ’25€54.50
€57.23
+5.0%
16.9%€67.35€38.04n/a11
Nov ’25€56.00
€53.44
-4.6%
19.0%€65.35€36.91n/a11
Oct ’25€51.00
€54.13
+6.1%
16.0%€64.06€39.08n/a11
Sep ’25€53.50
€48.98
-8.5%
17.9%€60.65€37.75n/a11
Aug ’25€44.80
€43.46
-3.0%
16.8%€53.83€30.94n/a11
Jul ’25€39.20
€39.88
+1.7%
14.7%€49.69€29.23n/a11
Jun ’25€37.40
€38.01
+1.6%
16.8%€49.91€28.18n/a11
May ’25€39.60
€36.45
-8.0%
16.1%€47.52€28.51n/a11
Apr ’25€37.80
€36.52
-3.4%
15.2%€45.59€29.57n/a11
Mar ’25€36.80
€35.09
-4.7%
14.2%€45.48€28.89n/a11
Feb ’25€35.80
€34.44
-3.8%
11.3%€42.58€29.43n/a11
Jan ’25€33.20
€33.16
-0.1%
11.8%€41.97€28.39n/a11
Dec ’24€35.20
€33.16
-5.8%
11.8%€41.97€28.39€54.5011
Nov ’24€33.00
€32.90
-0.3%
10.5%€40.52€28.68€56.0011
Oct ’24€33.20
€33.14
-0.2%
11.0%€41.14€29.12€51.0010
Sep ’24€34.60
€33.73
-2.5%
12.5%€44.72€28.97€53.5012
Aug ’24€33.60
€33.91
+0.9%
12.6%€45.38€30.04€44.8011
Jul ’24€33.00
€32.95
-0.1%
13.3%€45.10€29.22€39.2012
Jun ’24€34.60
€32.96
-4.7%
11.8%€41.78€27.19€37.4012
May ’24€30.20
€31.45
+4.1%
10.9%€41.96€27.31€39.6012
Apr ’24€28.60
€33.22
+16.2%
11.9%€44.36€28.87€37.8011
Mar ’24€27.80
€32.71
+17.6%
11.9%€43.59€28.37€36.8011
Feb ’24€29.00
€33.69
+16.2%
11.6%€44.64€29.05€35.8011
Jan ’24€30.00
€32.84
+9.5%
10.5%€43.06€29.05€33.2011
Dec ’23€31.80
€32.90
+3.4%
10.8%€43.30€29.21€35.2011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 14:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research
Hidemaru YamaguchiCitigroup Inc