Otsuka Holdings Valuation

Is OS1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OS1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OS1 (€56.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€79.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OS1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OS1?

Key metric: As OS1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OS1. This is calculated by dividing OS1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OS1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio32.2x
EarningsJP¥151.58b
Market CapJP¥4.82t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OS1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OS1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average63.4x
MRK Merck KGaA
22.7x11.1%€61.3b
DMP Dermapharm Holding
21.7x17.0%€2.0b
PSG PharmaSGP Holding
15.4x13.6%€290.2m
SRT3 Sartorius
193.7x36.4%€13.6b
OS1 Otsuka Holdings
32.2x12.3%€4.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OS1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.2x) compared to the peer average (63.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OS1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OS1 32.2xIndustry Avg. 20.2xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OS1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.2x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (20.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OS1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OS1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio32.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OS1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OS1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€56.50
€58.43
+3.4%
16.9%€68.76€38.84n/a11
Nov ’25€56.00
€53.44
-4.6%
19.0%€65.35€36.91n/a11
Oct ’25€51.00
€54.13
+6.1%
16.0%€64.06€39.08n/a11
Sep ’25€53.50
€48.98
-8.5%
17.9%€60.65€37.75n/a11
Aug ’25€44.80
€43.46
-3.0%
16.8%€53.83€30.94n/a11
Jul ’25€39.20
€39.88
+1.7%
14.7%€49.69€29.23n/a11
Jun ’25€37.40
€38.01
+1.6%
16.8%€49.91€28.18n/a11
May ’25€39.60
€36.45
-8.0%
16.1%€47.52€28.51n/a11
Apr ’25€37.80
€36.52
-3.4%
15.2%€45.59€29.57n/a11
Mar ’25€36.80
€35.09
-4.7%
14.2%€45.48€28.89n/a11
Feb ’25€35.80
€34.44
-3.8%
11.3%€42.58€29.43n/a11
Jan ’25€33.20
€33.16
-0.1%
11.8%€41.97€28.39n/a11
Dec ’24€35.20
€33.16
-5.8%
11.8%€41.97€28.39€54.5011
Nov ’24€33.00
€32.90
-0.3%
10.5%€40.52€28.68€56.0011
Oct ’24€33.20
€33.14
-0.2%
11.0%€41.14€29.12€51.0010
Sep ’24€34.60
€33.73
-2.5%
12.5%€44.72€28.97€53.5012
Aug ’24€33.60
€33.91
+0.9%
12.6%€45.38€30.04€44.8011
Jul ’24€33.00
€32.95
-0.1%
13.3%€45.10€29.22€39.2012
Jun ’24€34.60
€32.96
-4.7%
11.8%€41.78€27.19€37.4012
May ’24€30.20
€31.45
+4.1%
10.9%€41.96€27.31€39.6012
Apr ’24€28.60
€33.22
+16.2%
11.9%€44.36€28.87€37.8011
Mar ’24€27.80
€32.71
+17.6%
11.9%€43.59€28.37€36.8011
Feb ’24€29.00
€33.69
+16.2%
11.6%€44.64€29.05€35.8011
Jan ’24€30.00
€32.84
+9.5%
10.5%€43.06€29.05€33.2011
Dec ’23€31.80
€32.90
+3.4%
10.8%€43.30€29.21€35.2011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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