Axsome Therapeutics Valuation

Is 19X undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 19X when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 19X (€92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1317.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 19X is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 19X?

Key metric: As 19X is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 19X. This is calculated by dividing 19X's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 19X's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio14x
SalesUS$338.46m
Market CapUS$4.73b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 19X's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 19X vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
DMP Dermapharm Holding
1.7x4.1%€2.0b
BAYN Bayer
0.4x1.0%€19.6b
93M1 MPH Health Care
0.9x-60.2%€105.3m
PSG PharmaSGP Holding
2.6x7.7%€287.8m
19X Axsome Therapeutics
14x38.7%€4.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 19X is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 19X's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

23 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
19X 14.0xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies35PS0612182430+
23 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 19X is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.9x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 19X's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

19X PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio14x
Fair PS Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 19X is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 19X forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€92.00
€123.30
+34.0%
16.2%€171.50€100.04n/a17
Nov ’25€82.46
€114.16
+38.4%
18.2%€164.00€91.11n/a17
Oct ’25€80.00
€112.77
+41.0%
18.2%€162.09€90.05n/a17
Sep ’25€79.68
€113.05
+41.9%
18.6%€163.69€90.94n/a16
Aug ’25€79.32
€113.96
+43.7%
20.0%€174.53€87.27n/a17
Jul ’25€75.42
€113.80
+50.9%
20.5%€174.72€89.20n/a16
Jun ’25€67.72
€115.00
+69.8%
20.5%€176.83€90.28n/a16
May ’25€67.80
€114.43
+68.8%
21.3%€177.21€86.74n/a16
Apr ’25€73.42
€112.34
+53.0%
22.5%€176.13€83.43n/a16
Mar ’25€74.56
€111.08
+49.0%
22.1%€165.89€82.94n/a15
Feb ’25€82.56
€110.92
+34.4%
23.1%€166.19€83.10n/a14
Jan ’25€71.18
€105.27
+47.9%
26.3%€164.88€73.28n/a13
Dec ’24€62.06
€106.77
+72.0%
27.4%€168.46€74.87n/a12
Nov ’24€60.82
€110.02
+80.9%
26.0%€170.87€79.74€82.4612
Oct ’24€68.38
€108.74
+59.0%
25.7%€167.89€78.35€80.0012
Sep ’24€73.82
€105.96
+43.5%
26.0%€163.94€73.77€79.6812
Aug ’24€70.38
€102.21
+45.2%
32.4%€171.91€53.38€79.3212
Jul ’24€67.00
€104.01
+55.2%
34.2%€183.62€52.33€75.4212
Jun ’24€69.78
€104.33
+49.5%
33.8%€187.14€53.33€67.7213
May ’24€63.94
€97.78
+52.9%
36.7%€181.50€47.19€67.8013
Apr ’24€54.88
€98.77
+80.0%
33.5%€185.30€48.18€73.4216
Mar ’24€64.64
€100.87
+56.0%
34.5%€196.96€48.77€74.5616
Feb ’24€68.00
€100.82
+48.3%
33.8%€193.60€47.94€82.5616
Jan ’24€70.62
€103.00
+45.9%
34.8%€197.80€48.98€71.1815
Dec ’23€67.20
€106.61
+58.7%
35.6%€203.39€50.36€62.0614
Nov ’23€48.94
€101.20
+106.8%
43.5%€212.56€35.43€60.8215

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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