Paradox Interactive AB (publ)

DB:ETA Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.7b

Paradox Interactive Valuation

Is ETA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ETA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ETA (€15.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€22.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ETA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ETA?

Key metric: As ETA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ETA. This is calculated by dividing ETA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ETA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio52x
EarningsSEK 372.08m
Market CapSEK 19.36b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ETA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ETA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.7x
SAX Ströer SE KGaA
23.1x29.2%€2.7b
M8G Verve Group
15x22.0%€764.1m
RRTL RTL Group
9.3x-2.6%€3.7b
EVD CTS Eventim KGaA
31.4x13.2%€7.9b
ETA Paradox Interactive
52x41.4%€19.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ETA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52x) compared to the peer average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ETA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ETA 52.0xIndustry Avg. 14.1xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ETA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ETA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ETA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio52x
Fair PE Ratio26.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ETA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ETA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€15.76
€19.06
+20.9%
20.2%€24.35€12.17n/a6
Nov ’25€17.24
€18.17
+5.4%
23.8%€24.04€12.02n/a6
Oct ’25€16.56
€16.50
-0.3%
23.4%€20.85€10.86n/a5
Sep ’25€12.14
€16.50
+36.0%
23.4%€20.85€10.86n/a5
Aug ’25€13.16
€16.26
+23.5%
22.5%€20.43€11.06n/a5
Jul ’25€12.44
€17.23
+38.5%
22.7%€21.98€11.43n/a5
Jun ’25€13.04
€19.81
+51.9%
19.0%€23.51€13.93n/a4
May ’25€14.71
€20.70
+40.7%
9.4%€23.04€18.78n/a4
Apr ’25€16.14
€22.48
+39.3%
9.2%€24.81€19.49n/a4
Mar ’25€17.08
€22.48
+31.6%
9.2%€24.81€19.49n/a4
Feb ’25€18.01
€22.44
+24.6%
10.6%€24.64€18.92n/a4
Jan ’25€19.93
€22.47
+12.8%
10.7%€24.75€18.67n/a4
Dec ’24€18.11
€22.47
+24.1%
10.7%€24.75€18.67n/a4
Nov ’24€17.66
€22.14
+25.4%
11.4%€24.58€18.22€17.244
Oct ’24€20.00
€24.66
+23.3%
5.6%€26.44€22.66€16.564
Sep ’24€23.16
€25.22
+8.9%
3.0%€26.38€24.28€12.144
Aug ’24€26.38
€25.22
-4.4%
7.0%€27.04€22.32€13.164
Jul ’24€22.86
€22.46
-1.7%
3.5%€23.81€21.84€12.444
Jun ’24€23.18
€21.85
-5.7%
13.8%€24.71€16.00€13.045
May ’24€23.20
€20.07
-13.5%
12.9%€23.00€15.93€14.715
Apr ’24€22.33
€18.93
-15.2%
7.3%€19.78€16.18€16.145
Mar ’24€20.13
€18.93
-6.0%
7.3%€19.78€16.18€17.085
Feb ’24€16.13
€17.78
+10.3%
5.3%€18.70€16.10€18.015
Jan ’24€18.84
€18.60
-1.2%
6.7%€20.28€16.59€19.935
Dec ’23€17.93
€18.60
+3.8%
6.7%€20.28€16.59€18.115
Nov ’23€18.30
€18.45
+0.8%
7.1%€20.22€16.54€17.665

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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