Packaging Corporation of America

DB:PKA Stock Report

Market Cap: €21.1b

Packaging Corporation of America Valuation

Is PKA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PKA (€235.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€410.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKA?

Key metric: As PKA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKA. This is calculated by dividing PKA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.6x
EarningsUS$767.70m
Market CapUS$21.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.4x
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.4x7.8%€21.2b
SY1 Symrise
37.8x13.2%€14.8b
BAS BASF
76.5x34.2%€38.0b
EVK Evonik Industries
35.8x33.1%€8.2b
PKA Packaging Corporation of America
28.6x10.9%€22.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the peer average (40.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKA 28.6xIndustry Avg. 18.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€235.30
€199.61
-15.2%
22.5%€252.46€124.01n/a8
Nov ’25€210.30
€194.78
-7.4%
21.3%€233.67€122.95n/a8
Oct ’25€193.45
€169.17
-12.5%
18.2%€196.79€116.82n/a8
Sep ’25€188.80
€179.38
-5.0%
14.2%€201.90€119.85n/a8
Aug ’25€181.80
€179.38
-1.3%
14.2%€201.90€119.85n/a8
Jul ’25€166.65
€168.89
+1.3%
13.2%€194.27€114.88n/a8
Jun ’25€167.75
€166.21
-0.9%
14.0%€192.07€113.58n/a7
May ’25€161.15
€162.79
+1.0%
13.2%€183.64€114.66n/a8
Apr ’25€174.50
€154.98
-11.2%
13.8%€186.06€111.45n/a8
Mar ’25€165.30
€153.65
-7.0%
12.1%€172.01€112.51n/a8
Feb ’25€148.90
€152.69
+2.5%
12.1%€170.81€111.72n/a8
Jan ’25€147.40
€139.86
-5.1%
13.0%€157.41€103.73n/a8
Dec ’24€155.30
€140.08
-9.8%
13.5%€158.95€104.74n/a8
Nov ’24€144.15
€140.24
-2.7%
12.2%€160.85€107.87€210.308
Oct ’24€144.45
€139.10
-3.7%
11.8%€161.82€107.56€193.458
Sep ’24€137.65
€126.46
-8.1%
13.8%€150.23€95.60€188.809
Aug ’24€138.65
€126.46
-8.8%
13.8%€150.23€95.60€181.809
Jul ’24€120.35
€118.31
-1.7%
14.3%€151.21€94.39€166.6510
Jun ’24€114.85
€118.03
+2.8%
14.0%€149.69€96.16€167.7510
May ’24€122.50
€118.03
-3.7%
14.0%€149.69€96.16€161.1510
Apr ’24€127.00
€120.98
-4.7%
14.4%€153.19€96.55€174.5010
Mar ’24€129.00
€122.69
-4.9%
14.3%€154.41€97.32€165.3010
Feb ’24€128.00
€120.11
-6.2%
14.0%€151.85€95.71€148.9010
Jan ’24€120.00
€121.13
+0.9%
13.8%€155.28€93.17€147.4010
Dec ’23€129.00
€122.79
-4.8%
13.7%€158.50€95.10€155.3011
Nov ’23€122.00
€127.72
+4.7%
15.0%€172.57€99.33€144.1510

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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