Anglo American plc

DB:NGLB Stock Report

Market Cap: €34.7b

Anglo American Valuation

Is NGLB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NGLB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NGLB (€28.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€31.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NGLB is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NGLB?

Key metric: As NGLB is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NGLB. This is calculated by dividing NGLB's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NGLB's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.2x
SalesUS$29.44b
Market CapUS$36.38b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NGLB's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NGLB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
BAS BASF
0.6x4.5%€38.4b
HEI Heidelberg Materials
1x3.9%€21.4b
1COV Covestro
0.8x4.3%€10.9b
SY1 Symrise
3x5.5%€14.6b
NGLB Anglo American
1.2x2.3%€29.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NGLB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NGLB's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NGLB 1.2xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies35PS00.81.62.43.24+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NGLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NGLB's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NGLB PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NGLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NGLB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€28.77
€30.21
+5.0%
12.0%€36.86€24.45n/a17
Nov ’25€28.42
€29.53
+3.9%
11.1%€34.77€24.20n/a17
Oct ’25€29.26
€29.48
+0.7%
10.9%€34.99€23.98n/a17
Sep ’25€26.56
€29.83
+12.3%
11.4%€35.98€24.36n/a17
Aug ’25€27.95
€31.01
+11.0%
10.5%€36.93€25.01n/a17
Jul ’25€28.66
€31.19
+8.8%
11.3%€36.49€23.55n/a18
Jun ’25€29.57
€31.50
+6.5%
12.2%€37.48€23.67n/a17
May ’25€31.43
€28.71
-8.7%
18.1%€36.39€18.60n/a14
Apr ’25€22.56
€25.47
+12.9%
14.3%€31.63€18.73n/a19
Mar ’25€20.50
€25.40
+23.9%
14.1%€31.57€18.71n/a19
Feb ’25€22.12
€26.69
+20.7%
17.2%€39.11€18.71n/a19
Jan ’25€22.74
€26.56
+16.8%
18.8%€38.41€17.00n/a18
Dec ’24€26.54
€30.46
+14.8%
11.0%€39.06€25.50n/a18
Nov ’24€24.22
€30.88
+27.5%
12.1%€40.04€23.71€28.4218
Oct ’24€26.44
€31.76
+20.1%
12.9%€41.28€25.85€29.2618
Sep ’24€25.04
€31.30
+25.0%
12.1%€40.18€25.48€26.5619
Aug ’24€27.74
€31.35
+13.0%
12.2%€39.69€25.17€27.9519
Jul ’24€26.22
€33.63
+28.3%
13.7%€39.95€25.97€28.6619
Jun ’24€26.90
€36.61
+36.1%
16.1%€49.58€25.95€29.5720
May ’24€27.24
€36.14
+32.7%
16.4%€48.62€25.34€31.4319
Apr ’24€30.80
€36.12
+17.3%
17.4%€47.66€25.43€22.5619
Mar ’24€34.40
€38.14
+10.9%
16.2%€48.49€29.01€20.5020
Feb ’24€38.60
€38.02
-1.5%
16.3%€48.18€28.16€22.1220
Jan ’24€36.90
€37.73
+2.3%
14.6%€46.98€29.13€22.7421
Dec ’23€38.60
€38.00
-1.6%
14.7%€47.38€26.48€26.5421
Nov ’23€32.50
€39.35
+21.1%
15.3%€50.49€28.22€24.2221

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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