Franco-Nevada Corporation

DB:3FO Stock Report

Market Cap: €21.5b

Franco-Nevada Valuation

Is 3FO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3FO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3FO (€113.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€169.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3FO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3FO?

Key metric: As 3FO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3FO. This is calculated by dividing 3FO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3FO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio20.4x
SalesUS$1.09b
Market CapUS$22.29b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3FO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3FO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
HEI Heidelberg Materials
1x4.1%€21.5b
BAS BASF
0.6x4.4%€38.1b
1COV Covestro
0.8x4.2%€10.8b
SY1 Symrise
2.9x5.6%€14.3b
3FO Franco-Nevada
20.4x12.5%€32.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3FO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (20.4x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3FO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

36 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3FO 20.4xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies36PS00.81.62.43.24+
36 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3FO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (20.4x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3FO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3FO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio20.4x
Fair PS Ratio5.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3FO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (20.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3FO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€113.65
€139.86
+23.1%
8.4%€164.97€126.20n/a8
Dec ’25€117.40
€139.84
+19.1%
8.5%€165.25€124.83n/a8
Nov ’25€122.65
€138.43
+12.9%
12.0%€178.10€118.50n/a8
Oct ’25€111.95
€134.06
+19.7%
12.6%€176.40€117.69n/a8
Sep ’25€111.10
€133.91
+20.5%
13.3%€177.51€112.70n/a8
Aug ’25€117.00
€137.55
+17.6%
11.4%€177.13€116.40n/a9
Jul ’25€110.55
€135.57
+22.6%
9.7%€169.36€117.74n/a10
Jun ’25€114.45
€133.76
+16.9%
9.9%€168.21€116.54n/a10
May ’25€114.80
€133.84
+16.6%
10.2%€170.21€117.58n/a10
Apr ’25€110.10
€128.52
+16.7%
13.4%€170.37€102.58n/a10
Mar ’25€96.66
€134.10
+38.7%
12.6%€171.21€110.98n/a9
Feb ’25€99.54
€131.24
+31.8%
13.4%€170.11€107.96n/a10
Jan ’25€101.20
€135.25
+33.6%
16.3%€170.22€100.35n/a9
Dec ’24€103.05
€140.44
+36.3%
15.0%€168.65€101.62€117.409
Nov ’24€113.40
€153.83
+35.7%
8.8%€176.20€132.84€122.659
Oct ’24€127.00
€157.72
+24.2%
8.5%€180.40€139.12€111.959
Sep ’24€132.10
€154.07
+16.6%
8.3%€176.45€135.56€111.109
Aug ’24€130.30
€159.16
+22.2%
7.2%€178.46€141.62€117.008
Jul ’24€129.50
€151.87
+17.3%
13.2%€170.76€101.72€110.5510
Jun ’24€135.40
€151.89
+12.2%
12.5%€170.42€103.05€114.4511
May ’24€138.65
€146.33
+5.5%
12.2%€169.26€101.18€114.8011
Apr ’24€133.80
€142.02
+6.1%
12.3%€163.09€102.40€110.1010
Mar ’24€124.80
€146.01
+17.0%
12.0%€166.58€104.64€96.6610
Feb ’24€134.30
€141.86
+5.6%
11.7%€164.01€101.04€99.5410
Jan ’24€128.30
€144.38
+12.5%
11.9%€169.40€104.55€101.2010
Dec ’23€139.95
€148.73
+6.3%
12.5%€177.75€107.43€103.0510

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 12:44
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Franco-Nevada Corporation is covered by 36 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
Farooq HamedBarclays
David HaughtonBMO Capital Markets Equity Research