A look at thyssenkrupp (XTRA:TKA) valuation after profit return, loss warning and major restructuring plans

The latest buzz around thyssenkrupp (XTRA:TKA) comes from a mixed earnings story: a return to profit for 2025 paired with a stark warning that the coming year could swing back into a sizeable loss.

See our latest analysis for thyssenkrupp.

Investors have been whipsawed, with thyssenkrupp’s latest earnings rebound overshadowed by guidance for a fresh loss. This helped drive a sharp 1 day share price return of minus 6.49 percent, even after a powerful year to date share price return of 122.73 percent and an even stronger 1 year total shareholder return of 193.78 percent, signalling that long term momentum remains firmly positive despite the recent pullback.

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With shares still trading below analyst targets, but a fresh loss and heavy restructuring looming, is thyssenkrupp now a classic turnaround at a discount, or are markets already pricing in every euro of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 11.4% Undervalued

With thyssenkrupp last closing at €8.94 against a narrative fair value of about €10.09, the current share price sits below the projected upside path.

Continued investments and visible progress in green hydrogen initiatives and DRI plant construction for Steel Europe strategically align the company with rising customer demand and regulatory pressure for decarbonized steel, offering the potential to command premium pricing and improve segment margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady revenue gains, margin rebuild and a surprisingly low future earnings multiple all combine into that valuation gap? The narrative reveals the full playbook.

Result: Fair Value of €10.09 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent macro headwinds and execution risks around significant workforce reductions and restructuring could derail the margin rebuild story that investors are currently supporting.

Find out about the key risks to this thyssenkrupp narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While the narrative fair value points to upside, the SWS DCF model is more cautious, putting fair value nearer €8, slightly below today’s €8.94. That implies thyssenkrupp could be modestly overvalued if cash flows disappoint and raises the question: which story blinks first, the price or the forecasts?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out thyssenkrupp for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 899 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own thyssenkrupp Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your thyssenkrupp research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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