Here's Why Aurubis (ETR:NDA) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Aurubis

What Is Aurubis's Debt?

As you can see below, Aurubis had €198.0m of debt at December 2023, down from €249.0m a year prior. On the flip side, it has €134.0m in cash leading to net debt of about €64.0m.

How Healthy Is Aurubis' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Aurubis had liabilities of €1.85b falling due within a year, and liabilities of €1.02b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €134.0m in cash and €735.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €2.00b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €2.64b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Aurubis' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

While Aurubis's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.24 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.6 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly, Aurubis's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 87% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Aurubis's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Aurubis's free cash flow amounted to 26% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Aurubis's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Aurubis has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Aurubis is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.