Horace Mann Educators Corporation

DB:HM9 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.6b

Horace Mann Educators Valuation

Is HM9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HM9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HM9 (€38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€50.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HM9 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HM9?

Key metric: As HM9 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HM9. This is calculated by dividing HM9's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HM9's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.9x
EarningsUS$104.10m
Market CapUS$1.68b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HM9's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HM9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
NBG6 NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG
14.1x38.4%€587.5m
TLX Talanx
10.7x4.9%€20.3b
RLV RheinLand Holding
12.3xn/a€119.0m
DFV DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung
22.1xn/a€95.5m
HM9 Horace Mann Educators
15.9x23.1%€1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HM9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HM9's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HM9 15.9xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HM9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HM9's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HM9 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.9x
Fair PE Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HM9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HM9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€38.00
€40.18
+5.7%
2.2%€41.44€39.56n/a3
Nov ’25€34.00
€35.30
+3.8%
6.3%€38.02€32.59n/a3
Oct ’25€31.20
€35.07
+12.4%
8.6%€38.43€31.11n/a3
Sep ’25€31.60
€35.07
+11.0%
8.6%€38.43€31.11n/a3
Aug ’25€31.80
€34.54
+8.6%
6.7%€36.84€32.24n/a2
Jul ’25€30.00
€35.94
+19.8%
9.1%€39.21€32.67n/a2
Jun ’25€31.20
€36.66
+17.5%
6.3%€38.98€34.34n/a2
May ’25€34.20
€37.37
+9.3%
3.7%€38.76€35.99n/a2
Apr ’25€33.60
€38.22
+13.7%
2.4%€39.15€37.28n/a2
Mar ’25€33.20
€38.22
+15.1%
2.4%€39.15€37.28n/a2
Feb ’25€34.00
€34.08
+0.2%
8.1%€36.85€31.32n/a2
Jan ’25€29.20
€30.73
+5.2%
1.5%€31.19€30.27n/a2
Dec ’24€30.40
€31.32
+3.0%
1.5%€31.79€30.86n/a2
Nov ’24€29.80
€29.23
-1.9%
3.2%€30.18€28.29€34.002
Oct ’24€28.00
€29.80
+6.4%
4.8%€31.21€28.38€31.202
Sep ’24€26.20
€28.79
+9.9%
4.8%€30.16€27.42€31.602
Aug ’24€27.20
€29.20
+7.4%
1.5%€29.65€28.75€31.802
Jul ’24€27.20
€33.01
+21.4%
1.4%€33.47€32.56€30.002
Jun ’24€28.00
€33.01
+17.9%
1.4%€33.47€32.56€31.202
May ’24€28.00
€33.30
+18.9%
1.4%€33.76€32.84€34.202
Apr ’24€30.40
€36.52
+20.1%
2.6%€37.46€35.58€33.602
Mar ’24€34.60
€36.52
+5.5%
2.6%€37.46€35.58€33.202
Feb ’24€32.60
€37.11
+13.8%
6.2%€39.41€34.82€34.002
Jan ’24€35.20
€41.13
+16.9%
1.2%€41.62€40.65€29.202
Dec ’23€36.80
€41.13
+11.8%
1.2%€41.62€40.65€30.402
Nov ’23€39.60
€43.78
+10.5%
1.2%€44.29€43.26€29.802

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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