Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Medios AG (ETR:ILM1) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Medios
How Much Debt Does Medios Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2021 Medios had €2.54m of debt, an increase on €1.24m, over one year. But it also has €81.7m in cash to offset that, meaning it has €79.2m net cash.
How Healthy Is Medios' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Medios had liabilities of €64.5m due within a year, and liabilities of €73.2m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had €81.7m in cash and €111.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast €55.0m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This surplus suggests that Medios has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that Medios has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
Better yet, Medios grew its EBIT by 155% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Medios's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Medios has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Medios saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Summing up
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Medios has net cash of €79.2m, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 155% over the last year. So is Medios's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Medios you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About XTRA:ILM1
Excellent balance sheet and fair value.