Fresenius SE KGaA (ETR:FRE) Could Be At Risk Of Shrinking As A Company

To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. Having said that, after a brief look, Fresenius SE KGaA (ETR:FRE) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Fresenius SE KGaA, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.064 = €3.0b ÷ (€75b - €29b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

So, Fresenius SE KGaA has an ROCE of 6.4%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 6.0%, it's still a low return by itself.

See our latest analysis for Fresenius SE KGaA

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Fresenius SE KGaA compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Fresenius SE KGaA for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

In terms of Fresenius SE KGaA's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, the ROCE was 10.0% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Fresenius SE KGaA becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a side note, Fresenius SE KGaA's current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 39% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.

In Conclusion...

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 41% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

On a separate note, we've found 1 warning sign for Fresenius SE KGaA you'll probably want to know about.

While Fresenius SE KGaA may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.