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PDC Energy Valuation

Is PD3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PD3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PD3 (€67.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€229.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PD3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PD3?

Key metric: As PD3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PD3. This is calculated by dividing PD3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PD3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio3.5x
EarningsUS$1.85b
Market CapUS$6.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PD3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PD3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.4x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.9x-8.9%€170.6m
VBK Verbio
n/a55.1%€710.2m
CHRD Chord Energy
8.4x4.3%US$8.0b
MTDR Matador Resources
7.9x8.3%US$7.4b
PD3 PDC Energy
3.5x-12.5%€6.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PD3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the peer average (6.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PD3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PD3 3.5xIndustry Avg. 9.0xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PD3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (5.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PD3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PD3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.5x
Fair PE Ratio7.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PD3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PD3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
May ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Mar ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Feb ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Jan ’25n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Dec ’24n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Oct ’24n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Sep ’24n/a
€76.22
0%
14.0%€90.92€65.46n/a6
Aug ’24€68.55
€73.22
+6.8%
13.1%€90.40€64.18n/a9
Jul ’24€64.40
€78.74
+22.3%
12.6%€91.03€65.54n/a10
Jun ’24€64.00
€79.85
+24.8%
12.8%€93.57€67.37n/a9
May ’24€56.90
€81.97
+44.1%
14.1%€104.91€63.86n/a13
Apr ’24€57.64
€81.03
+40.6%
16.0%€106.55€60.22n/a13
Mar ’24€62.79
€80.88
+28.8%
14.9%€107.86€65.65n/a13
Feb ’24€61.86
€81.73
+32.1%
15.5%€104.68€63.72n/a14
Jan ’24€58.71
€88.90
+51.4%
18.3%€122.29€63.97n/a12
Dec ’23€68.00
€93.74
+37.8%
15.5%€124.98€74.03n/a12
Nov ’23€72.92
€94.33
+29.4%
16.9%€130.46€75.26n/a12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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