Northern Trust Corporation

DB:NT4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €20.8b

Northern Trust Valuation

Is NT4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NT4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NT4 (€104) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€124.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NT4 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NT4?

Key metric: As NT4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NT4. This is calculated by dividing NT4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NT4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.3x
EarningsUS$1.63b
Market CapUS$21.70b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NT4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NT4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.7x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.2x12.7%€7.9b
MLP MLP
10x8.3%€642.7m
DBK Deutsche Bank
7.8x13.4%€30.2b
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/a€390.6m
NT4 Northern Trust
13.3x-9.4%€21.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NT4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (8.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NT4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$406.78m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-18.2%US$206.28m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.8xn/aUS$24.05m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.68m
No more companies available in this PE range
NT4 13.3xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NT4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NT4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NT4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.3x
Fair PE Ratio14.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NT4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NT4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€104.00
€100.14
-3.7%
7.0%€109.71€80.14n/a14
Nov ’25€92.50
€95.54
+3.3%
7.0%€106.12€77.52n/a14
Oct ’25€80.50
€82.76
+2.8%
6.4%€92.15€74.08n/a14
Sep ’25€80.50
€82.65
+2.7%
6.7%€94.76€76.54n/a15
Aug ’25€82.00
€84.08
+2.5%
6.6%€96.20€77.70n/a15
Jul ’25€78.00
€84.56
+8.4%
6.7%€95.92€77.30n/a15
Jun ’25€76.50
€85.22
+11.4%
6.1%€95.48€76.94n/a15
May ’25€78.00
€86.30
+10.6%
5.8%€96.69€79.79n/a15
Apr ’25€81.50
€83.42
+2.4%
5.5%€92.17€74.48n/a15
Mar ’25€76.00
€81.45
+7.2%
5.8%€91.36€75.67n/a15
Feb ’25€73.50
€81.04
+10.3%
6.0%€91.31€73.78n/a15
Jan ’25€76.50
€71.77
-6.2%
9.0%€82.71€61.81n/a15
Dec ’24€72.50
€69.33
-4.4%
9.0%€82.76€59.77n/a15
Nov ’24€62.00
€71.46
+15.3%
9.4%€85.02€61.41€92.5014
Oct ’24€65.00
€78.72
+21.1%
8.8%€88.94€65.29€80.5013
Sep ’24€70.00
€76.66
+9.5%
9.0%€89.85€65.59€80.5014
Aug ’24€72.50
€76.66
+5.7%
9.0%€89.85€65.59€82.0014
Jul ’24€67.50
€77.73
+15.2%
10.2%€91.64€64.15€78.0014
Jun ’24€67.00
€80.49
+20.1%
10.9%€99.45€66.92€76.5014
May ’24€69.50
€80.58
+15.9%
10.1%€97.07€69.85€78.0014
Apr ’24€79.50
€89.85
+13.0%
10.3%€108.78€77.44€81.5015
Mar ’24€89.50
€91.76
+2.5%
9.7%€110.34€78.55€76.0015
Feb ’24€88.50
€88.91
+0.5%
10.0%€107.42€76.47€73.5015
Jan ’24€83.50
€93.57
+12.1%
9.8%€108.18€79.02€76.5015
Dec ’23€89.00
€93.04
+4.5%
11.6%€114.95€79.80€72.5015
Nov ’23€85.00
€98.04
+15.3%
12.9%€122.68€81.11€62.0015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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