Medallion Financial Corp.

DB:MD5 Stock Report

Market Cap: €200.4m

Medallion Financial Valuation

Is MD5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MD5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MD5 (€8.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MD5 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MD5?

Key metric: As MD5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MD5. This is calculated by dividing MD5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MD5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.2x
EarningsUS$40.05m
Market CapUS$209.93m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MD5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MD5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.4x
OT8 Eleving Group
9.3x29.7%€190.9m
E4I Multitude
9.6x19.8%€105.4m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%€196.1m
BWB Baader Bank
15.2xn/a€198.6m
MD5 Medallion Financial
5.2x16.6%€209.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MD5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the peer average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MD5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Finance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MD5 5.2xIndustry Avg. 9.0xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MD5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the European Consumer Finance industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MD5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MD5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.2x
Fair PE Ratio12.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MD5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MD5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€8.75
€11.05
+26.3%
8.3%€11.97€10.13n/a2
Nov ’25€8.60
€11.05
+28.5%
8.3%€11.97€10.13n/a2
Oct ’25€7.20
€11.08
+53.9%
8.3%€12.01€10.16n/a2
Sep ’25€7.20
€11.08
+53.9%
8.3%€12.01€10.16n/a2
Aug ’25€7.55
€11.08
+46.8%
8.3%€12.01€10.16n/a2
Jul ’25€7.05
€11.19
+58.7%
8.3%€12.12€10.25n/a2
Jun ’25€7.60
€11.19
+47.2%
8.3%€12.12€10.25n/a2
May ’25€7.25
€11.22
+54.8%
8.3%€12.16€10.29n/a2
Apr ’25€7.15
€11.09
+55.1%
8.3%€12.01€10.17n/a2
Mar ’25€7.05
€11.09
+57.3%
8.3%€12.01€10.17n/a2
Feb ’25€9.25
€11.07
+19.7%
8.3%€11.99€10.15n/a2
Jan ’25€8.90
€10.29
+15.6%
18.2%€12.16€8.42n/a2
Dec ’24€8.65
€10.29
+18.9%
18.2%€12.16€8.42n/a2
Nov ’24€6.80
€10.39
+52.9%
18.2%€12.28€8.50€8.602
Oct ’24€6.60
€10.47
+58.6%
13.0%€11.84€9.11€7.202
Sep ’24€7.65
€10.47
+36.9%
13.0%€11.84€9.11€7.202
Aug ’24€8.95
€10.47
+17.0%
13.0%€11.84€9.11€7.552
Jul ’24€7.05
€8.63
+22.4%
5.3%€9.09€8.18€7.052
Jun ’24€5.85
€8.63
+47.5%
5.3%€9.09€8.18€7.602
May ’24€5.50
€9.01
+63.7%
5.3%€9.48€8.53€7.252
Apr ’24€6.95
€9.01
+29.6%
5.3%€9.48€8.53€7.152
Mar ’24€7.75
€9.01
+16.2%
5.3%€9.48€8.53€7.052
Feb ’24€7.80
€9.48
+21.5%
5.3%€9.98€8.98€9.252
Jan ’24€6.50
€9.48
+45.8%
5.3%€9.98€8.98€8.902
Dec ’23€7.00
€9.48
+35.4%
5.3%€9.98€8.98€8.652
Nov ’23€7.40
€9.76
+31.9%
5.3%€10.27€9.24€6.802

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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