Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.

DB:7M20 Stock Report

Market Cap: €478.2m

Invesco Mortgage Capital Valuation

Is 7M20 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 7M20 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 7M20's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 7M20's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 7M20?

Key metric: As 7M20 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 7M20. This is calculated by dividing 7M20's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 7M20's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8x
EarningsUS$62.52m
Market CapUS$497.99m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 7M20's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 7M20 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
JDC JDC Group
56.9x24.8%€317.8m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/a€390.6m
MLP MLP
9.9x8.3%€642.7m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%€198.1m
7M20 Invesco Mortgage Capital
8x65.6%€498.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 7M20 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 7M20's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7M20 8.0xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 7M20 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 7M20's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

7M20 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8x
Fair PE Ratio28.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 7M20 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 7M20 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€7.82
€8.43
+7.8%
9.6%€9.54€7.63n/a3
Nov ’25€7.40
€8.38
+13.2%
6.8%€9.15€7.77n/a3
Oct ’25€8.26
€8.39
+1.5%
6.8%€9.15€7.78n/a3
Sep ’25€7.81
€8.39
+7.4%
6.8%€9.15€7.78n/a3
Aug ’25€8.37
€8.28
-1.0%
9.1%€9.20€7.36n/a3
Jul ’25€8.67
€8.33
-3.9%
9.1%€9.26€7.41n/a3
Jun ’25€8.47
€7.59
-10.4%
3.0%€7.82€7.36n/a2
Apr ’25€9.02
€7.58
-16.0%
3.0%€7.81€7.35n/a2
Mar ’25€8.08
€7.58
-6.2%
3.0%€7.81€7.35n/a2
Feb ’25€7.91
€7.58
-4.2%
3.0%€7.81€7.35n/a2
Jan ’25€8.20
€7.20
-12.2%
3.2%€7.43€6.97n/a2
Sep ’24€10.34
€9.77
-5.5%
2.3%€10.00€9.54€7.812
May ’24€9.33
€10.26
+9.9%
7.5%€11.31€9.50€7.933
Apr ’24€9.90
€11.64
+17.5%
1.9%€11.79€11.32€9.023
Mar ’24€11.50
€11.64
+1.2%
1.9%€11.79€11.32€8.083
Feb ’24€13.50
€11.68
-13.5%
4.9%€12.45€11.06€7.913
Jan ’24€12.40
€12.07
-2.6%
8.6%€13.52€11.11€8.203
Dec ’23€12.76
€12.07
-5.4%
8.6%€13.52€11.11€7.553
Nov ’23€11.80
€11.85
+0.4%
19.8%€14.42€8.76€6.343

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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