Alerus Financial Corporation

DB:5QD Stock Report

Market Cap: €538.0m

Alerus Financial Valuation

Is 5QD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5QD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5QD (€19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€37.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5QD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5QD?

Key metric: As 5QD is a barely profitable bank we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 5QD. This is calculated by dividing 5QD's market cap by their current book value.
What is 5QD's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1.4x
BookUS$386.49m
Market CapUS$560.23m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 5QD's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 5QD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.6x
HYQ Hypoport
4.1x30.4%€1.4b
VVV3 Ökoworld
1.3x5.5%€209.0m
PBB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
0.2x35.3%€679.8m
GLJ Grenke
0.5x25.2%€713.0m
5QD Alerus Financial
1.4x73.4%€560.2m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 5QD is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.4x) compared to the peer average (1.6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 5QD's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Diversified Financial Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PBB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
0.2x35.3%US$707.88m
CSQ creditshelf
0.07xn/aUS$29.07k
No more companies available in this PB range
5QD 1.4xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies3PB00.81.62.43.24+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 5QD is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.4x) compared to the European Diversified Financial industry average (1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5QD's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5QD PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1.4x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 5QD's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5QD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€19.00
€22.04
+16.0%
5.0%€23.75€20.90n/a5
Nov ’25€18.30
€20.96
+14.5%
3.3%€22.07€20.23n/a5
Oct ’25€20.20
€21.68
+7.3%
2.6%€22.59€20.78n/a5
Sep ’25€19.90
€21.93
+10.2%
3.5%€23.09€21.24n/a4
Aug ’25€20.40
€21.93
+7.5%
3.5%€23.09€21.24n/a4
Jul ’25€17.90
€20.48
+14.4%
5.2%€21.53€18.73n/a4
Jun ’25€17.30
€20.59
+19.0%
1.9%€21.16€20.24n/a4
May ’25€18.30
€20.73
+13.3%
4.0%€22.01€19.67n/a4
Apr ’25€19.70
€21.24
+7.8%
4.3%€22.16€20.31n/a4
Mar ’25€19.70
€22.16
+12.5%
6.8%€24.01€20.31n/a3
Feb ’25€20.80
€22.16
+6.5%
6.8%€24.01€20.31n/a3
Jan ’25€19.90
€19.07
-4.2%
13.5%€20.88€15.44n/a3
Dec ’24€16.40
€16.59
+1.2%
4.5%€17.52€15.67n/a3
Nov ’24€16.10
€17.39
+8.0%
5.2%€18.45€16.09€18.304
Oct ’24€16.70
€18.57
+11.2%
5.5%€19.87€17.03€20.204
Sep ’24€17.70
€18.14
+2.5%
6.8%€19.50€16.33€19.904
Aug ’24€17.60
€18.14
+3.1%
6.8%€19.50€16.33€20.404
Jul ’24€16.70
€17.10
+2.4%
6.9%€18.24€15.51€17.904
Jun ’24€15.30
€15.27
-0.2%
5.0%€16.41€14.58€17.304
May ’24€13.20
€15.27
+15.7%
5.0%€16.41€14.58€18.304
Apr ’24€14.00
€17.42
+24.4%
7.4%€19.25€16.50€19.703
Mar ’24€18.40
€19.42
+5.5%
2.2%€20.03€19.12€19.703
Feb ’24€18.70
€19.42
+3.8%
2.2%€20.03€19.12€20.803
Jan ’24€21.40
€25.09
+17.2%
6.5%€27.10€23.08€19.903
Dec ’23€22.40
€25.09
+12.0%
6.5%€27.10€23.08€16.403
Nov ’23€22.20
€25.09
+13.0%
6.5%€27.10€23.08€16.103

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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