XPS Pensions Group Valuation

Is 406 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 406 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 406 (€4.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 406 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 406?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

406 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18x
PEG Ratio-1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 406's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 406 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.9x
MLP MLP
10.9x6.9%€663.4m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/a€391.7m
O4B OVB Holding
15.3x2.4%€279.3m
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs
25.3x54.1%€436.2m
406 XPS Pensions Group
13.6x-12.6%€738.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 406 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (13.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 406's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 406 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (21.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 406's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

406 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 406's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 406 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.25
€3.93
-7.6%
6.4%€4.26€3.48n/a5
Oct ’25€3.39
€3.77
+11.1%
5.0%€3.92€3.42n/a5
Sep ’25n/a
€3.77
0%
5.0%€3.92€3.42n/a5
Aug ’25n/a
€3.77
0%
5.0%€3.92€3.42n/a5
Jul ’25n/a
€3.77
0%
5.0%€3.92€3.42n/a5
Jun ’25n/a
€3.34
0%
6.7%€3.61€3.02n/a5
May ’25n/a
€3.34
0%
6.0%€3.50€3.04n/a5
Apr ’25n/a
€3.06
0%
5.2%€3.27€2.80n/a5
Mar ’25n/a
€3.06
0%
5.2%€3.27€2.80n/a5
Feb ’25n/a
€3.06
0%
5.2%€3.27€2.80n/a5
Jan ’25n/a
€3.06
0%
5.2%€3.27€2.80n/a5
Dec ’24n/a
€2.98
0%
7.3%€3.23€2.59n/a5
Nov ’24n/a
€2.86
0%
5.7%€3.04€2.58€4.255
Oct ’24n/a
€2.59
0%
7.4%€2.93€2.33€3.395
Sep ’24n/a
€2.59
0%
7.4%€2.93€2.33n/a5
Aug ’24n/a
€2.59
0%
7.4%€2.93€2.33n/a5
Jul ’24n/a
€2.50
0%
9.8%€2.93€2.21n/a5
Jun ’24n/a
€2.33
0%
5.4%€2.52€2.21n/a5
May ’24n/a
€2.24
0%
8.2%€2.46€1.99n/a6
Apr ’24n/a
€2.24
0%
8.2%€2.46€1.99n/a6
Mar ’24n/a
€2.14
0%
11.4%€2.44€1.80n/a5
Feb ’24n/a
€2.14
0%
11.4%€2.44€1.80n/a5
Jan ’24n/a
€2.14
0%
11.4%€2.44€1.80n/a5
Dec ’23n/a
€2.14
0%
11.4%€2.44€1.80n/a5
Nov ’23n/a
€2.10
0%
11.8%€2.41€1.78n/a4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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