Deutsche Bank (XTRA:DBK) Valuation: Is There More Upside After Recent Strong Performance?

Deutsche Bank (XTRA:DBK) shares have seen mixed performance recently. After a strong start to the year, the stock is up 70% year-to-date, although it has pulled back slightly in the past month.

See our latest analysis for Deutsche Bank.

After a sharp run-up, Deutsche Bank’s share price has cooled off in recent weeks, likely reflecting shifting sentiment after an exceptional stretch. Even so, momentum remains strong, with the stock delivering exceptional 1-year total shareholder return over 80% and a 3-year figure above 250%, which is a testament to its sustained turnaround story.

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With Deutsche Bank’s impressive returns and only a modest discount to analyst targets, the question now is whether the recent surge leaves more room for upside or if future growth is already fully factored in by the market.

Most Popular Narrative: 0.8% Undervalued

With Deutsche Bank closing at €28.65 and a narrative fair value of €28.88, the picture is nearly balanced. Yet optimism lingers just above the current price, setting up a case for modest upside that could hinge on coming strategic shifts.

The imminent large-scale German fiscal stimulus and structural reforms (including the "Made for Germany" initiative) are expected to drive significant increases in corporate, infrastructure, and defense investment activity from 2026 onward. Deutsche Bank is poised to benefit due to its leading market position, strong corporate client relationships, and global reach. This should generate higher lending volumes, advisory, and fee-based revenues over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what lies behind this valuation? Discover which ambitious projections and key financial drivers made analysts upgrade their view. Deutsche Bank's future could hinge on one surprising set of assumptions. Can you guess what powers the narrative? Unlock the crucial details that shape this fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of €28.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, elevated credit losses in U.S. real estate and unexpected legal setbacks could quickly challenge the current optimism surrounding Deutsche Bank’s growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Deutsche Bank narrative.

Build Your Own Deutsche Bank Narrative

If you want to test these assumptions or follow your own line of thinking, you can craft your personal view in minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Deutsche Bank research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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